Evacuation scenario 1 for Aliaga, Turkey

In this study, evacuation simulations are carried out for Aliaga, the industrial zone of Izmir, Turkey, where petro-chemical companies such as Petkim and Tupras are active. The scenario is based on an explosion in the acrylonitrile (ACN) factory in Petkim. The risk zone is determined considering the features of ACN, the wind speed and the direction of the wind.

Simulations are executed via MATSim and a mesoscopic simulation software called Cube Avenue. The aim of using two simulation softwares is to be able to compare evacuation time estimates and to obtain reliable results from evacuation simulations which are crucial and critical in creating emergency plans.

Evacuation scenario 2 for Aliaga, Turkey

Network is converted from OpenStreetMap and modified manually for both softwares. Three different scenarios have been identified for the evacuation simulation with an assumption that all evacuees are at home. The selection of these three scenarios is mainly based on the location of the destination zones and traffic demand. Free spaces which are close to the risk zone are designated as gathering-areas. The aim is to provide the arrival of evacuees to health care centers and gathering areas according to distance to explosion area, within a minimum time. The simulations based on these scenarios allow to choose the most useful scenario to be implemented in real case.

Research Paper

• Evacuation plan of an industrial zone: Case study of a chemical accident in Aliaga, Turkey and the comparison of two different simulation softwares Safety Science, Volume 60, December 2013, Pages 123-130 Pelin Onelcin*, Mehmet Metin Mutlu, Yalcin Alver Department of Civil Engineering, Ege University, 35100 Bornova, Izmir, Turkey
• Paper Link